Opinion: Is Hezbollah ready for full-scale war with Israel?
“When we entered Lebanon, there was no Hezbollah,” former Israeli leader Ehud Barak once said. “We were accepted by perfumed rice and flowers by the Shia in the south. It was our presence there that created Hezbollah.”
Indeed, Israel’s operational victory in Lebanon in August 1982 created a strategic threat: Hezbollah’s “Islamic Resistance”. The five-division-strong non-state force has shown levels of military prowess and combat effectiveness that far surpass anything the Palestinian Liberation Organisation ever approached.
Hezbollah has fought two wars with Israel. The first, a 15-year, guerrilla-intensive conflict between 1985 and 2000, resulted in a Hezbollah victory, but with significant costs. It degraded Israel’s political will, rather than its military capabilities.
The second war was even more surprising. Between July and August 2006, Hezbollah displayed a mastery of infantry warfare, anti-armour tactics, and cyber and information operations. It kept up rocket attacks throughout the war, despite being overwhelmingly outnumbered and outgunned.
The 2006 war ended in, at least, a draw with Israel - a military result not achieved by any Arab state force since 1948.
Today, Israel and Hezbollah seem to be heading towards a third round. But what are the military prospects if that happens?
Opinion by Omar Ashour.
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