Opinion: Trump beware, enabling Israel to impose its will on Middle East will backfire

With President-elect Donald Trump and his team poised to take office in January 2025, there is much speculation about how they intend to address the mounting strategic challenges in the Middle East. These include the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the frozen normalisation process between Israel and some Arab countries and the heated hostility with Iran.

A close examination of US foreign policy in the Middle East and elsewhere suggests that any change will likely be incremental rather than transformational.

American foreign policy has always been driven by a combination of values and perceived national interests. The second Trump administration, like the first, is likely to prioritise the latter over the former. It is certain to be more assertive in pursuing what the political elite in Washington, both Democrats and Republicans, perceive as key US national security objectives.

First, since the creation of Israel in 1948, the US has provided approximately $160bn in foreign aid and strong diplomatic support. This ironclad informal alliance has been a constant in US foreign policy regardless of who occupies the White House or which political party controls the Congress.

Officially, Washington, like the rest of the world, endorses a two-state solution. But for many years, settlers and right-wing politicians in Israel have expanded settlements and, in the process, have undermined the foundations of a viable Palestinian state. 

Second, in the closing months of the first Trump administration, the president and his team succeeded in getting the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to normalise relations with Israel (Abraham accords). Morocco and Sudan joined the process as well.

The Biden administration followed a similar strategy and sought, unsuccessfully, to incentivise Saudi Arabia to follow suit. 

Opinion:  Trump beware: Enabling Israel to impose its will on Middle East will backfire by Gawdat Bahgat