Third Intifda Unlikely

Ofer Zalzberg, of the International Crisis Group, has been outside the gates of al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. He says the Old City is the tensest he’s seen it in years:

“90 percent of the shops are closed. The odd group of tourists wander by in what looks today like a ghost city. Police are everywhere. You see the older men who come to pray regularly, they stand outside the gate hoping it will open.They sit next to the barriers and talk and hope for a better day. The merchants didn’t even come. There were lots of warnings in the media not to come to the old city today.”

Zalzberg says wider mobilisation or a "third intifada" is unlikely:

So far I don’t see any real sign of mass mobilisation among Palestinians. Police presence in Jerusalem is so high now that it makes it very difficult to organise. But I think it will accelerate trends we are already seeing: Arab Muslim individuals, sometimes because of despair, loss or trauma, sometimes because they are part of an armed political faction, instigating specific attacks on Israeli citizens. I think this kind of sporadic, unstructured violence will become more common. People are now angrier with Israel for preventing so totally Muslim worshippers from accessing the site. In the last months we’ve seen more of what Israel calls 'dilution policy,' only allowing men over 40 and women inside. This gives Muslims the sense they are being punished collectively.