No 'magic wand': Trump faces layers of resistance on Turkey F-35 deal
President Donald Trump says he will lift sanctions on Turkey and overturn a ban on selling the US’s Nato ally F-35 warplanes, but experts say he has “no magic wand” to do so without buy-in from Congress.
“We’re going to be taking the sanctions off,” Trump said on Tuesday, sitting next to his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at his presidential palace in Ankara.
“We don’t want to sanction friends. It’s very simple.”
Trump added that he is mulling a sale of F-35 warplanes to Turkey.
“That’s a decision we’re going to make… It’s a great plane, the best plane by far, and it’s certainly something we will consider,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Ankara.
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Despite Trump’s confidence, there are several hurdles standing in the way of the F-35 sale to Turkey, which will require some buy-in from members of Congress who have had a frosty opinion of Turkey for years, experts have told Middle East Eye.
Turkey boasts the second-largest army in Nato and is enjoying newfound appreciation in the alliance among many European countries looking to counter Russia amid the Ukraine war.
Turkey, a predominantly Sunni Muslim country, is also viewed by many in Washington as a counterbalance to Iran. Turkey is the main outside power backing Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose overthrow of the Assad family in 2024 deprived Iran of a key ally in the Mediterranean.
For Trump, politics is personal. He and Erdogan enjoy exceptionally close ties, so much so that Trump said he only attended the Nato conference as a favour to Erdogan, confirming a MEE report.
But Turkey gets scant love in the US Congress.
What are Caatsa sanctions?
Erdogan has long been criticised for his crackdowns against political opponents, but Turkey’s foreign policy has particularly upset lawmakers.
Pro-Kurdish lawmakers in the US chafed for years at Turkey’s incursions into northern Syria. Meanwhile, pro-Israel lawmakers resent Turkey’s support for Palestinians and Erdogan’s characterisation of Hamas as "resistance fighters".
Turkey’s centuries-old rift with Greece in the Aegean also rankles Athens’ supporters in Washington.
But it was Turkey’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air defence system in 2019 that led to punitive measures complicating the kind of arms deals with the US that Trump is now considering.
'I suspect Trump and Erdogan are talking behind the scenes on some sort of deal to render the S-400 inoperative'
- James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Turkey
In 2020, Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency (SSB), which procures arms for Turkey, was slapped with sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa).
“Caatsa was not passed with Turkey in mind,” Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), told MEE.
“It was passed mainly in response to Russia’s interference in the 2016 US election. But Turkey conducted this significant transaction with Russia and found itself in the crosshairs”.
“Trump has wiggle room on the Caatsa sanctions,” James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE.
For example, the Trump administration formally notified Congress at the end of June that it plans to sell $700m worth of jet engines to Turkey, despite Caatsa sanctions imposed on SSB.
Turkey wants to use the engines for its Kaan fifth-generation fighter jet programme. The sale is expected to be conducted directly with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in order to bypass SSB.
But experts say working around sanctions to sell engines is one thing, and pushing through an F-35 deal is something else.
'Possession' is the law
Before Turkey purchased the S-400, it was part of a programme to jointly produce the F-35. An estimated 900 parts of the warplane were expected to be produced in Turkey, which also agreed to purchase 100 of the jets.
The Trump administration immediately expelled Turkey from the F-35 programme in July 2019 after deliveries of the S-400, and cancelled the sale. A year later, Caatsa sanctions were imposed on SSB.
“The engine sale is low-hanging fruit. The most challenging element to the sanctions is Turkey becoming part of the F-35 production line again,” Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told MEE.
'This is fundamentally about a compromise over what ‘possession’ of the S-400 means'
- Aaron Stein, Foreign Policy Research Institute
An amendment in the 2020 National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) adds a third layer preventing Turkey from purchasing the F-35.
The law explicitly prohibits Turkey from purchasing the F-35s while it possesses the S-400. It does not provide for a presidential waiver.
Essentially, experts say, the Trump administration will have to verify that Turkey no longer has the S-400.
“This is fundamentally about a compromise over what ‘possession’ of the S-400 means,” Stein, at FPRI, told MEE.
“Trump wants to sell stuff, but he is prevented from doing so by pieces of legislation that he has no control over. One option is to lean on Congress to make changes. He can also certify non-possession and get Congress to agree,” Stein added.
Erdogan kept it 'in the box'
The irony is that Turkey never activated the S-400. Many parts of the air defence system are still in boxes. Current and former US officials have suggested that a compromise could be reached where Turkey either sends the S-400 to a third country or renders it inoperable.
“The president can’t waive the NDAA amendment,” Jeffrey told MEE. "I suspect Trump and Erdogan are talking behind the scenes on some sort of deal to render the S-400 inoperative.”
While Trump’s vow to lift sanctions on Turkey has been characterised by some as a major US breakthrough, Tol, at MEI, said that Turkey’s reluctance to even operate the $2.5bn weapons system was a nod to the US. If Turkey does agree to render it inoperable, it would be a climbdown.
“The real story is Erdogan’s stance on the S-400,” Tol told MEE. “After saying he planned to buy a second batch of S-400s, Erdogan cooled on it and kept this one in its box.”
There is no guarantee that a Trump-Erdogan compromise will appease Congress. Under longstanding practice, any chair or ranking member of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committee can place a hold on arms sales.
The Trump administration steamrolled over Democratic Congressman Gregory Meeks' hold on the sale of fighter jet engines to Turkey last month. Meeks, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the White House ignored his requests for details about the sale.
If Trump is serious about selling F-35s to Turkey, he would likely have to overcome even stiffer resistance.
“This is very messy. Trump can’t wave a magic wand,” Stein said.
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