What is Putin thinking?

A recent report by the Valdai discussion club, a Moscow-based think tank close to the Kremlin, offers a rare insight into what Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, might be thinking.

As the West began to consider Russia the main problem facing European security, Russia looked to its borders, specifically Moldova, Belarus, the Donbas and Crimea. 

By the end of 2020, it became commonplace that Russia would enact military provocations on its borders. 

The Russian response was always complex, methodical, and "appealed to the common sense of the leading elites in the West".

But when Russia realised that the initiatives it wanted from the West - compromise and diplomacy - were not forthcoming, it looked to adopt western logic in dealing with problems of European security. 

That meant the "military activism" of the US and Nato. 

The conflict, the group finds, will end in the creation of another world that would result in not only Russia moving its security frontier away from its borders and deeper towards the West. 

But in a world where Ukraine is demilitarised and is given a new government, it will most likely become a third member of the union between Russia and Belarus. 

However, if the American threat materialises, Russia will have in mind "a symmetrical response: heavy pressure on the countries of Eastern Europe".

In the end, it finds that "Russia’s goal remains unchanged - to create a fairer security system in Europe that better takes into account Russian interests".