Iran 'not in danger of collapse', say US intelligence sources
US intelligence reports suggest that Iran's leadership retains control of the country, several sources familiar with the matter have told Reuters.
After two weeks of joint US-Israeli strikes on the country, including one that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, one source told the news agency that there is "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and "retains control of the Iranian public".
Following a “multitude” of intelligence reports that have reached this conclusion, the most recent coming in the last few days, President Donald Trump’s move to end the bombardment – which he told CBS on Monday will end “soon, very soon” – could signal a costly failure for his administration.
The reports follow comments from Democratic senators, who said following a behind-closed-doors briefing from Trump administration officials that the US has "no plan" in Iran, and that earlier CIA assessments had concluded that if Iran's leaders were taken out, an "even more radical group" would emerge.
Trump's intervention, which has so far left at least seven American troops dead and 140 others injured, has provoked a backlash among parts of his supporter base.
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With oil prices surging as Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil is shipped, a failure to topple the Islamic Republic administration will likely pile more pressure on the White House.
The senators briefed by US officials said that "regime change" was not one of the war's goals.
A separate Reuters report found that Israeli officials did not believe it was certain there would be an uprising from the Iranian public, nor the collapse of the government, which recently appointed a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous supreme leader.
While another source insisted that Israel has no intention of allowing any form of the Iranian government to survive, they did suggest it would require forces on the ground in order to successfully topple the regime, which the US has not ruled out doing.
The Trump administration has given multiple reasons for initiating Operation Epic Fury, as the military bombardment has been dubbed, including as an act of self-defence against Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as well as a chance to liberate the Iranian people.
Now, though, amid warnings from Iran that oil prices could climb far higher, the biggest US military operation since 2003 might already be in trouble, with intelligence reports indicating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's interim leaders retain control of the country.
The US government has also put out mixed messages on how it intends to proceed.
A day before Trump promised the war would end soon, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told CBS, "This is only just the beginning."
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