Houthis eye 'full control' of Bab el-Mandeb, as Saudi-backed forces reel from offensive
Yemen's Houthi fighters' rapid advance along the Red Sea coast has put them in a prime position to control shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb choke point, while bolstering Iran’s leverage against the US, experts tell Middle East Eye.
“The Houthis have pulled off a military victory that puts them one step closer to be in full control of the Bab el-Mandeb,” Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime security group Dryad Global, told MEE.
“I think it will actually be easier for the Houthis to exert control in Bab el-Mandeb than it is for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz because the US doesn’t have tangible military assets in the area,” he added.
After days of heavy fighting along a narrow plain known as the Tihama, on Thursday the Houthis routed Yemeni forces loyal to Saudi Arabia and seized the historic and strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Arab media reported that the Houthis made further gains throughout the day. They deployed troops on the Hanish Islands, which sit in the middle of the Red Sea across from Eritrea. Meanwhile, Houthi forces continued to advance south to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the island of Perim.
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The Houthis' rapid advance has also raised questions about the coordination of Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.
UAE-Saudi talks on Yemen
Despite advancing down an open plain, the Houthis did not face significant air power from Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies.
Mocha was held by the National Resistance Forces (NRF), a well-equipped anti-Houthi force led by Tarek Saleh, the nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was killed by the Houthis after allying with them a decade ago.
Saleh’s force was traditionally backed by the UAE, but shifted its allegiance to Saudi Arabia earlier this year.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia led a military coalition to oust the Houthis a decade ago, but have since fallen out over the war in Sudan, Israel and Yemeni separatists.
The UAE announced its withdrawal from Yemen earlier this year, with Saudi Arabia assuming responsibility towards military groups aligned with Abu Dhabi.
One western diplomat told MEE that the offensive came against the backdrop of talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE about the latter potentially returning to Yemen to cover costs. MEE was told the talks were at an impasse.
Houthi and Iran interests converge
The Houthis' sweeping gains come after months of simmering tensions with Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis launched strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping, while Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies launched air strikes on the Houthis. Yemeni forces backed by Saudi Arabia tried to make their own counter-offensive to seize the Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeida.
The Houthis have two key motivations to launch the biggest offensive in the war since the ceasefire was sealed in 2022, Arab and western officials who have been following the flare-up in fighting told MEE.
With their forces ensconced along the Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis will have greater accuracy in enforcing their blockade against Saudi Arabia and policing international shipping.
Before the war, roughly 12 percent of seaborne oil trade passed through the Red Sea, but the waterway's importance swelled after Saudi Arabia turned to it to export oil as a result of Iran’s move to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Diplomats say the Houthis have been inspired by Iran’s efforts to impose a toll for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The Houthis basically want a toll, too. Saudi Arabia has been adamant that it will not pay a Red Sea toll,” a diplomat in Riyadh told MEE.
The Houthis endured months of devastating US air strikes from January to May 2025, but have been rebuilding their capacity.
MEE reported in July that Lebanese, Iranian, Syrian, and Iraqi military experts specialised in drone and missile technologies were deployed to Yemen. Iran has also provided military supplies to the Houthis.
The Houthis' advance on Bab el-Mandeb also bolsters Iran’s position as fighting escalates in the Strait of Hormuz, with both the US and the Islamic Republic targeting vessels.
“This is totally consistent with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps agenda to control both choke points of maritime trade in the Arabian Gulf,” Ibrahim Jalal, a Yemeni researcher and policy adviser, told MEE, adding that it also serves Houthi interests, which have focused on obtaining economic concessions from Saudi Arabia.
“The Houthis now control the highest mountains overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb. Targeting and surveillance will be easier. They can also strike targets in the Gulf of Aden with more ease,” he said.
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