Iran has mapped out US flight patterns for air defence: Report
Iranian military commanders may have mapped out flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers over their skies, raising the risks should US President Donald Trump decide to restart the war on Iran, a US official told The New York Times.
The status of Iran’s air defences is likely a critical component as Trump weighs whether or not to resume attacks on Iran.
Trump said on Monday that the US was set to resume attacking Iran on Tuesday, but decided against it because of lobbying from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
“We were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow, and I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump told reporters.
Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military is crippled and without air defence. While the US has generally been able to conduct sorties in Iranian airspace, it does not have total dominance.
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Days before the US and Iran reached a fragile ceasefire, Iran shot down a F-15E Strike Eagle warplane, sparking a massive US recovery operation for the pilots. If Iran were able to capture the US pilot alive, it would have put tremendous pressure on Washington, experts say.
The US official told The New York Times that the downing of the F-15E was a sign that the US’s flight patterns have become more predictable to Iran.
Iran was getting closer to successfully shooting down US warplanes as the war progressed.
In March, an F-35 warplane was reportedly damaged by Iranian fire. The US has also lost at least 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones over Iran, CBS News reported.
Russia and China
The New York Times reported that Russia may have helped Iran map US flight patterns in order to better position their military assets and air defence systems.
Iran and Russia have a long-standing security arrangement. Russia has assisted Iran by providing satellite imagery of US warships and military personnel, according to multiple US media reports.
Iran’s air defence comprises a mix of domestically produced systems along with Russian and Chinese systems.
Middle East Eye was the first to report that China had provided air defence batteries to Iran, following the June 2025 war that culminated in the US bombing three Iranian nuclear sites.
Trump’s claims that Iran’s military has been “decimated” contrast with a series of US intelligence leaks that suggest the Islamic Republic’s forces are in much better shape than the US leader and his advisors let on.
The New York Times reported last week that Iran still has about 70 percent of the mobile missile launchers and roughly 70 percent of the missile stockpile it had before the war.
The US attacks on Iran targeted missile sites buried deep in underground caves. Iran has used the ceasefire to clear the rubble from those sites, with the weapons systems still intact, the report said.
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