French far-right leader Marine Le Pen polling at record high ahead of 2027 election

French far right leader and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is polling at a record high and projected to win the April 2027 presidential election, according to a recent survey.

Published on Monday and conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for French broadcasters RTL and M6, the poll predicts Le Pen to win and be at least 16 points ahead of any other candidate. 

The poll, which surveyed 1,764 people registered to vote in France aged 18 or over, also indicates a clear progression for left-wing, pro-Palestinian candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI).

While the four-time presidential candidate was credited with 12 percent of votes in April, he is now polling at around 16-17 percent, according to Toluna Harris, and is considered more likely to reach the second round than centre-right former prime minister Edouard Philippe. 

In the likely runoff between Le Pen and Melenchon, Le Pen is projected to ultimately win with 68 percent of votes over 32 percent for 75-year-old Melenchon.

In France's presidential election, the top two candidates advance to a second round if no one scores more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. 

In the second round of the last presidential election in 2022, Le Pen took 41.4 percent of the vote and lost to Emmanuel Macron with 58.6% percent. Le Pen has run for president three times already, and has lost twice in a row to Macron, whose two-term limit has now been reached.  

With numerous candidates crowding the field - especially on the left - several left‑wing leaders plan to hold a “united left” primary on 11 October to choose a single presidential contender. LFI, along with two other left‑wing parties, currently opposes the initiative.

Convicted of embezzlement

Last year, Le Pen and 20 members of her party, Rassemblement National (RN), were convicted of embezzlement for misappropriating roughly €4.5m of European Parliament funds for RN staff.

Le Pen was initially sentenced to four years in prison and given a five‑year ban from holding political office, which would have disqualified her from the 2027 presidential election.

However, on 7 July, the Paris appeal court upheld her conviction but significantly reduced the sentence, clearing the way for her to run in 2027. The 58‑year‑old must now serve a one‑year term under house arrest, monitored by an electronic ankle tag.

Following the court's decision, Le Pen announced that she would appeal to the Cour de Cassation, France's highest appeals court for criminal matters - a move that could allow her to campaign without the electronic tag. 

If her appeal is rapidly heard and rejected, she might have to campaign next spring wearing the device.

Ties with Israel 

Founded by her father, Jean‑Marie Le Pen, the Front National - the former name of the RN - was long marred by antisemitic scandals.

Israel has for decades maintained a strict boycott policy of European far-right parties due to their antisemitic or Holocaust-denying past and historical ties to fascist parties. The Front National was one of them. But in recent years, the party has undertaken efforts to distance itself from its antisemitic past and has taken a pro-Israel turn, coinciding with Israel’s ongoing rapprochement with European far‑right parties.

In April, Le Pen reportedly held a discreet meeting with Israel’s ambassador to the country, Joshua Zarka, which was not publicly announced through official diplomatic channels.

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At the last parliamentary elections, Le Pen received public backing from Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli, who also invited Jordan Bardella, the party's president, to speak at an international conference on combatting antisemitism in Jerusalem in March 2025. 

During the genocide in Gaza, Le Pen repeatedly criticised Macron’s stance after he issued strong public condemnations of Israel’s military actions and last year formally recognised the state of Palestine.

In a TV interview last year, she said Israel is fighting "a war against Islamic terrorism". 

Le Pen also advocates for strict immigration policies to halt what she calls the "Islamisation" of France, which she considers an existential threat to French secularist and constitutional values. 

She has previously called for repealing laws that allow undocumented migrants to obtain legal residency and has argued that benefits for immigrants should be reduced to discourage new arrivals.