Saudi Arabia mulls military escalation in response to Houthi threats
Saudi Arabia is weighing different options to deal with the Houthis, who are escalating their threats against the kingdom in a sign officials and analysts say could forebode a return to fighting in Yemen.
The kingdom’s defence minister, Khalid bin Salman, has suggested that the US is giving Saudi Arabia leeway to pursue offensive strikes against the Houthis, multiple US and regional officials told Middle East Eye. However, its leadership has not made a decision.
One US and one western official said the discussions could point to differences of opinion within the Saudi royal court over how to respond to the Houthi threat as wider fighting between the US and Iran escalates.
The discussions come as a four-year ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is tested by a recent exchange of fighting.
The Houthis inflamed tensions with Saudi Arabia earlier this month after a flight arrived at Sanaa airport to carry Houthi officials to the funeral of assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Sanaa airport to prevent the plane from returning.
The United Nations-backed ceasefire that the Houthis signed with the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government of Yemen has expired, but until now, the sides have generally abided by a framework in which flights to Yemen are from Amman, Jordan, and Cairo, Egypt.
US and regional sources told MEE that the original flight that landed in Sanaa included Lebanese, Iranian, Syrian, and Iraqi military experts specialised in drone and missile technologies. The flight to Iran included Houthi officials tapped to undergo training in Iran, along with senior political figures.
The Houthis retaliated against the Sanaa attack by firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's southwestern city of Abha earlier this week.
A major return to fighting between the two sides would not only add to Yemen’s humanitarian crisis but also shake energy markets and the Saudi economy, which is already navigating the Iran war.
'No easy solution'
Since Iran has attempted to assert its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the main artery for Saudi Arabian oil exports. The kingdom is sending roughly 4.5 million bpd of oil through the Red Sea via its East-West Pipeline.
“I’d hate to be a Saudi today. There is no easy solution to Yemen,” Mohammed al-Basha, a US-based Yemen expert, told MEE.
“A peace deal [with the Houthis] would mean billions of dollars in reparations, while a return to war has 50-50 odds of a Saudi victory,” he said.
The Houthis launched attacks on global shipping in the Red Sea following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel. The group said its attacks were in solidarity with besieged Palestinians in Gaza, and it won support across the Arab and Muslim world.
US President Donald Trump ordered a wide-scale bombing campaign against the Houthis in 2025. He eventually stopped the attacks ahead of a visit to the Gulf in response to lobbying by Saudi Arabia, MEE revealed at the time.
Both sides have abided by the May 2025 truce at sea.
Although the Houthis officially sat out the war that erupted after the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, Gulf and US officials who spoke with MEE widely believe that the Houthis were responsible for some land strikes on Saudi Arabia.
A former US official said the larger problem for both sides was that the UN-mandated ceasefire had “long reached its expiration date”, but no alternative has been found to resolve the conflict and advance a political settlement.
'No war, no peace'
The Houthis control the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and much of the populated northwest, while Saudi Arabia backs an internationally recognised government based in Aden.
“The no war, no peace stalemate has not produced any outcome closer to a political settlement,” Ibrahim Jalal, an independent expert on Yemen and the Arab Gulf, told MEE. “The Houthis' anti-Saudi rhetoric has also flared up.”
Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi threatened Saudi Arabia in a televised speech aired on Thursday.
"All Saudi oil facilities and vital installations will be targets for our missiles and drones if Riyadh gets involved" in striking Yemen again, he said.
“Airports for airports, ports for ports, and a blockade for a blockade," he said.
Saudi Arabia has sought to shore up US support as tensions rise. The kingdom, like other Gulf states, suffered strikes from Iran in retaliation for the US-Israel war despite lobbying Washington against it.
Pakistan, which has a mutual defence treaty with Saudi Arabia and cordial ties with Iran, has warned the Houthis not to attack the kingdom as well, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The deputy commander of the US Central Command, Lieutenant General Patrick Frank, met with the Saudi chief of the general staff, First Lieutenant General Fayyad al-Ruwaili, in Riyadh on Wednesday.
The US State Department also announced on Wednesday that it approved the sale of 20,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems.
So far, experts say the tit-for-tat strikes by both sides have been carefully calibrated. While some experts warn that the Houthis could escalate by closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Basha, the Yemeni expert, said that was unlikely.
“Iran and Israel media leaks are emphasising the Bab el-Mandeb to try to bring the US into this fight, but the Houthis don’t want that,” he said. “Trump also has enough problems in the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this form. More about MEE can be found here.
